culture
politics
Can the United States Be United Again?
Columnist, Washington Post
President, Eurasia Group
0
0
Genesis
Response
Penultimate
Finale
July 17th, 2020
Eugene makes a key point of optimism—the coronavirus virus isn’t red or blue, and increasingly the response isn’t either. Governors across the political spectrum now recognize they have a fundamental problem, and they’re all trying to govern to the best of their abilities. That wasn’t true early on in the pandemic, because the hardest hit were mostly the bluest of the blue urban centers in Democratic states (and during an election season, no less). This is truly a national crisis at this point. Recognizing it as such is a critical step in the right direction.
Since we’re looking at the positives, the US also deserves strong bipartisan marks for its quick and significant economic response to the pandemic. Congress came together to pass extensive legislation quickly, that helped pretty much everybody—Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi worked well together, as did the House and Senate. I expect more of the same in coming weeks because everyone now understands the scale of the challenge ahead of us. What’s more, every Democratic economist I know tells me Jay Powell (a Trump appointee) is doing a fantastic job at the Federal Reserve. These are very real achievements.
But the fact that we’re still in the first wave… that’s a serious problem, as is Trump’s continued politicizing of the response and refusal to take any responsibility. That’s resulted in Trump blaming anyone he can, now even Dr. Anthony Fauci (who isn’t perfect, but has the best record on the virus in the administration… and is one of the only figures trusted across the board). The upside: The White House knows it has a problem and finally wants to address it. The downside: They’re not really looking for solutions.
All of which means Trump’s not looking like the favorite in November right now. Eugene is right—the scale of a potential Biden win in November will be crucial. But if it’s close, there are plenty of ways Trump can contest it, and he’s already made clear he’s likely to. He can argue that his supporters faced poll intimidation or “unfair” obstacles to voting; voter harvesting and voter fraud are well-worn tropes Trump could trot out as well. He can accuse blue states of elections administration failure (ranging from inadequate polling stations/workers to active miscounts), a real possibility given the pandemic, but used by Trump as proof of a plot against him. Trump doesn’t need any single one of these accusations to be believed by a majority of the US electorate; he just needs to cast enough doubt in the minds of enough people for the US to face a legitimate crisis of confidence in its democratic system.
Yes, there are structural reasons why the national discord will continue in the long term. But we shouldn’t fool ourselves that Trump’s ouster will suddenly result in less political polarization. In fact, with Trump’s track record of refusing to accept hard truths, I’m bracing for yet more discord to come in November.
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