Genesis
Response
Penultimate
Finale
August 12th, 2022
David Sacks argues that Taiwan can be defended “at a reasonable cost,” and that is necessary to preserve the credibility of American alliances to ensure global security and prosperity. In doing so, he neglects the grave asymmetries that characterize the cross-Strait military balance.
Like many advocates for Taiwan, he is dismissive about the possibility that China could successfully transport its armed forces across the Strait. That is a bit strange given that China possesses the world’s largest navy, the world’s largest coast guard, the world’s largest merchant marine, and also the world’s largest ports from which to stage out of. Still, Beijing is not relying on its vast maritime might alone to cross the mere 90 miles to Taiwan. It will employ thousands of missiles, drones, aircraft, and artillery strikes to pulverize Taiwan’s defenses. In fact, it is quite possible that China would not even require landing any soldiers on Taiwan’s beaches, since its airborne and heliborne forces alone might be sufficient to conquer the island.
Sacks is correct that the invasion would be comparable to Normandy. However, he may want to study that campaign more closely. The Allies suffered just 4,413 killed out of a total invasion force of 150,000 – a much lower figure than planners had anticipated -- even though they were attacking Hitler’s vaunted “Atlantic Wall” and fighting the Wehrmacht, one of the most battle-hardened and combat efficient forces ever created.
Sacks is right that China’s forces are “not ten feet tall,” but neither are Taiwan’s. In fact, Taipei has underfunded its military forces for decades at well under 2% of GDP and spent its scarce funds on “shiny toys,” such as large amphibious attack ships. Many experts agree its forces are undermanned and the reserves are hardly in fighting shape. U.S. forces dispatched to rescue Taiwan would be at the end of a logistics line running 5-7,000 miles and thus at a severe disadvantage. American submarines might maul the Chinese Navy, but they would have to contend with myriad Chinese countermeasures like sea mines – a deadly threat to submarines. USN submarines could not stop an invasion, since their magazines are relatively small, while China’s invasion force would comprise an armada of at least 5-10,000 vessels. Oddly, Sacks does not even mention nuclear weapons, but there is a significant risk of nuclear use in a bloody U.S.-China war over Taiwan.
Sacks resorts to the old credibility trope, arguing that allies expect the U.S. to intervene or they might lose faith. Never mind that this same tired argument has been made to keep U.S. forces fighting “endless wars” in conflicts from Vietnam to Afghanistan. The U.S. should not go to war in obscure locations just to reassure allies. Rather, we should reinforce treaty allies as needed, and they must realize that the issue of Taiwan and China constitutes a smoldering civil war, quite akin to the situations in both Afghanistan and Vietnam. History shows it is wiser for external powers to abjure intervention in civil wars.
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